Dr. Hamid Aghaie is working as Project Manager and Scientist at Energy Center at AIT Austrian Institute of Technology since June 2013. His main fields of expertise are energy economics, electricity market design, and integrated energy system modeling. He is mainly engaged in several national and European research and innovation projects at AIT. He received his PhD in energy economics from Technical University of Vienna in 2017. His PhD thesis was on model-based analysis of generation resource adequacy in electricity markets. He is a member of IEEE and IAEE organizations.

Abstract:

District heating (DH) generation accounts for 26% of the residential heat demand in Austria. Almost 60% of DH in Austria is generated by CHP plants, but the share of heat pumps and solar thermal is expected to increase. In this study, we evaluate the share of Solar thermal in DH generation in Austria in 2030 by using a partial equilibrium optimization model called Balmorel. The results show that the share of solar thermal in DH generation increases from nearly zero in 2018 up to 1.05 TWh in 2030 (which is 3.8% of total DH generation in that year). Sensitivity analysis proves that the investment cost of solar thermal technology and fossil fuel prices are determining factors on the future evolution of solar thermal. A 20% increase in biomass and natural gas prices will result in higher capacity of solar thermal and a growth up to 1.3 TWh generation from this generation technology in 2030.